26 Jan 2007

Posted at 15:29h in The Friday Brief by
Investors have gradually moved away from the notion that the Fed is ready to cut interest rates while some think they may be near raising them. The economy has slowed, but will it continue to slow sufficiently to squeeze out inflation? Sure housing and autos are in the basement. Just yesterday, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes in 2006 dropped 8.4%, the biggest droop in about a quarter century according to the WSJ. Also yesterday, Ford reported a staggering net loss of $5.8 billion during the fourth quarter, dragging its shortfall for all of 2006 to $12.7 billion.  General Motors said it would delay filing its fourth quarter and 2006 earnings results as it "will restate its financial statements, primarily due to pre-2002 tax accounting adjustments," according to its statement also in the WSJ.

01 Oct 2004

Posted at 16:30h in The Friday Brief by
Good riddance to the third calendar quarter which ended yesterday with the S&P 500 down .70% and the NASDAQ down 7.24%.  The worst of the declines came in July and were caused in part by rising crude oil prices as well as disruptions caused by four major hurricanes in the South and East.  Investors spent all of July and half of August ratcheting down their expectations for growth; as car sales, home sales, consumer confidence, and consumer spending all weakened. 

09 Jul 2004

Posted at 16:28h in The Friday Brief by
Perhaps the Fed has been correct in its view of the economic recovery and the patience they have demonstrated in raising rates.  Many have criticized their reluctance to raise rates faster feeling that it is important to achieve what they believe are market neutral rates sooner rather than later.  But maybe they have it right after all and have chosen the correct pace for rate hikes.  Too fast a pace might choke the recovery. 

12 Mar 2004

Posted at 15:37h in The Friday Brief by
After a 36% rise of the Dow Jones Industrials, a 40% rise of the broader S&P 500 and a 55% rise of the NASDAQ, investors decided to take a breather.  The first stocks to succumb to selling pressure were last year’s market leaders; technology and biotechnology companies comprising the majority of the NASDAQ index.  It reached a peak on January 29th suffering three periods of 6% declines each since then.  The index is currently off just under 10% from its high.   The Dow reached a 52-week high on February 19 at 10,753, but has fallen 5.6% since then.  The S&P 500 was last to succumb, peaking on March 5th and falling 4.4% from that level.