04 Mar 2005

Posted at 16:26h in The Friday Brief by
The economy continues to show signs of strength and expanding breadth.  Consumer spending, which represents two thirds of our economy, has been the steady sustainer since recovery began in late 2001.  Low interest rates and taxes have provided consumers with more spending power.  Not until the second half of 2004 did the corporate sector join the party, but it is coming on strong.  Most recently business investment has grown at the fastest pace since 1997.  It will likely take a leadership position from here as the consumer shows signs of slowing somewhat.

04 Feb 2005

Posted at 16:47h in The Friday Brief by
The U.S. economy forges on, adding jobs and improving standards of living.  It was reported today that the unemployment rate fell from 5.4% in December to 5.2% in January, a three-year low.  According to Bloomberg News, the latest revisions show that the level of U.S.jobs now exceeds those of February 2001, a month before the world’s largest economy fell into an eight month recession. 

13 Aug 2004

Posted at 16:09h in The Friday Brief by
Rising oil prices continue to drain optimism from the equity markets and from corporate managers.  Over 80% ofU.S.companies have reported their earnings now and on average they are up 40% over last year, according to the Wall Street Journal.  Advanced Industrial Equipment (1,974%), Coal (1,532%), Internet Services (946%), and Communications Technology (588%) are the leaders so far.  But while the latest earnings reports are generally good, managers such as Cisco’s John Chambers appear less certain about the future.  They say that their customers seem less enthused than they were earlier in the year.  The so-called energy tax appears to be having some degree of economic impact. 

17 May 2002

Posted at 15:43h in The Friday Brief by
Benjamin Graham, called the father of fundamental investing, said, “in the short run the market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”  A problem investors face today is that the ‘short run’ seems to be more like the long run.  Just how much longer the wrenching ups and downs will go, no one can say, but it is clear that the longer it goes, more people leave in disgust.