08 Aug 2008

Posted at 15:08h in The Friday Brief by
Oil is dropping like arock. It stands at $117.42 a barrel in New York, 20% below its record high of $147.27 reached July11th. Copper heads for its biggest weekly drop since March and down 12% since June. The dollar is climbing to a five?month high against the Euro putting further pressure on oil and other commodities. And gold fell to an eight?week low in London on speculation that dollar gains will spur gold sales by investors who bought the metal as a hedge against a sinking dollar.  

07 Apr 2008

Posted at 16:08h in The Friday Brief by
“We are in a recession” according to Warren Buffett. “Across the board I am seeing a significant slowdown,” he said on CNBC television. Fed chair Ben Bernanke in his Senate testimony last week said that “the economic situation has become distinctly less favorable.''

22 Feb 2008

Posted at 16:32h in The Friday Brief by
Search for the bottom in the housing recession continues, leading indicators are falling, the auction market has dried up, Oil breaks $100, Gold is reaching new highs, and the job market is cooling. Unfortunately there is little evidence to support the thesis that we will miss a recession other than the continued strong momentum in Asia and theMiddle Eastmay pull us out of this dive with the help of lower rates and government stimuli.

15 Feb 2008

Posted at 16:38h in The Friday Brief by
In the star-studded 1970’s comedy war film Kelly’s Heroes, Donald Southerland’s character ‘Oddball’ constantly admonished the dreary nature of his tank driver, Moriarty, played by Gavin MacLeod with the phrase “always with the negative waves Moriarty.”  The steady pounding of dour economic reports continues with little positive relief in sight. The juggernaut US and global economies seem to have changed course almost overnight. The change in mood is due both to qualitative and quantitative forces.