08 May 2009

Posted at 16:20h in The Friday Brief by
Since the exaggerated stock market lows of early March, investors have been overjoyed by recent Good news that the trends in earnings, housing, jobs, and the economy may be slowing in their descent. They are glimmers of light in an otherwise dark reality. But this is a Bad Recession, the worst since the Great Depression, and it is unique in numerous ways. Finding remedies that don’t make matters worse poses hugely daunting challenges for government officials. And the Ugly truth is they have bent and even broken good faith promises, contracts, and even the Constitution in the name of remedy. The effects of these broken trusts, the exponential explosion of federal debt, and unprecedented spending on social programs that will not end after recovery will have major and unintended consequences on our future economy.

21 Nov 2008

Posted at 13:20h in The Friday Brief by
It comes as absolutely no surprise that the massive bankruptcies and bailouts of September and October were enough to freeze both consumers and businesses in their tracks. The government numbers for the next couple of weeks are nothing more than a post mortem exercise to confirm the obvious. However, as we move forward a couple of weeks to get beyond the period of absolute shock, the reports will begin to provide clues about the possible breadth and depth of this recession.

24 Oct 2008

Posted at 16:35h in The Friday Brief by
Everyone is wondering if there is a bottom? Markets around the world tumbled yesterday on the same fears driving our markets down. How badly will a global recession hurt corporate profits? As investors sell on earnings fears, they exacerbate the fragile stability of the credit markets – a self-perpetuating spiral. Every drop in stock prices reduces further the assets of banks and corporations, suggesting that an increasing number of them will have trouble paying their debts.

10 Oct 2008

Posted at 16:42h in The Friday Brief by
News continues worsen in financial markets throughout the world. No economy is free from the carnage with more than $25 trillion erased from global equities in 2008. The Dow Jones Industrials index is now down more than 43% from its record high a year ago. This week represents the worst for the S&P 500 since 1933.