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10 Jul 2009 Slowly, But Surely?

Posted at 16:45h in The Friday Brief by Sam Bass Jr.

Equity markets continue to cool as investors consider whether the meteoric rally starting in March was overly optimistic. The S&P 500 run-up of nearly 40% from March 9^th to June 12^th is now 6.8% below its high point. The MSCI Emerging market index is 8.75% off its high, also reached on June 12^th, but that index rose 72% from its depths in March on signs of greater economic strength in developing economies. It is becoming clear that the world is emerging from the worst economic slump since WWII, but just how fast remains in question.

23 Feb 2007 The Best or the Worst of Times?

Posted at 16:31h in The Friday Brief by Sam Bass Jr.

Just a couple of weeks ago it looked as if the economy was going to re-accelerate after only modestly slowing to a respectable 2.5% growth in the fourth quarter. But more economists are now reducing their estimates for growth and saying that fourth quarter GDP will likely be revised downward from 2.5% to 2.0%. In several speeches, Fed governors and district-bank presidents yesterday pared their estimate of economic growth for 2007 to 2.5% - 3%.

19 Aug 2005 Economic Growth Remains Strong and Widespread

Posted at 14:49h in The Friday Brief by Sam Bass Jr.

On most every front, housing, manufacturing, jobs, consumer demand, jobs, and corporate profits, the economy looks strong. Growth should be sustainable for the foreseeable future, as long as the Fed doesn’t go too far with their rate increases. Unfortunately, recent inflation data is not sufficiently benign to suggest the Fed may slow their pace any time soon. On the positive side though, oil prices which topped $67.00 last Friday may have peaked.

17 Dec 2004 Yes Virginia; California, Florida, Wisconsin, and everybody else, there is a Santa Clause

Posted at 16:28h in The Friday Brief by Sam Bass Jr.

So far the Holiday spending season is outshining the more pessimistic prognostications of the more Scrooge and Grinch-like analysts. On Monday the government reported that retail sales rose for the third straight month, despite rising fuel costs. The end of the negative political ads, the highest job growth since 1999, and the recent drop in gasoline prices have all likely contributed to the improved mood and spending.