06 May 2011

Posted at 14:54h in The Friday Brief by
Our economic recovery has, in the opinion of most economists, become self-sustaining, but remarkably slow relative to former recoveries. Job growth has been a primary drag and remains exceptionally slow to recover. Ben Bernanke, during the first-ever press conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting said “the labor market is improving gradually. We would like to make sure that that is sustainable. The longer it goes on, the more confident we are.” Economic growth slowed to 1.8% in the first quarter, following at 3.1% rate in the fourth quarter of 2010.

15 Apr 2011

Posted at 15:30h in The Friday Brief by
Based on the rhetoric flying around Washington, it seems unlikely that meaningful budgetary reform will come in the next two years. In his Wednesday campaign-like speech Mr. Obama stated his intention to raise taxes more clearly than any other part of his plan. Just as clearly, House Republicans claim that tax increases are dead on arrival in their chamber. It even turns out that $38.5 billion ‘savings’ in government spending, triumphantly celebrated by Boehner, Reid, and Obama, will only cut this year’s deficit by $352 million according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. Don’t these guys get it that Americans are fed up with reckless spending, political posturing and outright lies?

18 Feb 2011

Posted at 15:09h in The Friday Brief by
It was a mixed week for economic data, but a pretty good one for markets. The S&P looks to finish up close to 1% and the 7-10 year Treasury index is up .25% for the week so far.  Manufacturing news and corporate earnings continue strong, but the consumer may be taking a break. And still bouncing along the bottom, jobs and housing showed few signs of recovery. 

04 Feb 2011

Posted at 15:33h in The Friday Brief by
The flurry of economic data released this week was on balance surprisingly strong, with the notable and regrettable exceptions of jobs and housing. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke summed up the economic outlook yesterday. “Until we see a sustained period of stronger job creation, we cannot consider the recovery to be truly established.” Yet almost every other metric is strong and getting stronger. Quarterly corporate profits are sharply ahead of a year ago, manufacturing is growing stronger, productivity continues to rise, and consumer spending as evidenced by retail sales is gaining strength.