03 Sep 2010

Posted at 16:42h in The Friday Brief by
Political strategist James Carville won the election for Bill Clinton when he turned the campaign’s focus toward the economy to unseat President George H. W. Bush who was considered unbeatable because of his successful foreign policy. An article in the Capital Journal Section of today’s Wall Street Journal by Gerald Seib sums up the problem facing not only the Democratic party this election cycle but the economy in general. “Fact One: The unemployment rate is the most important of all leading political indicators. Fact Two: If the August unemployment number to be announced Friday tops 9% [it increased from 9.5% to 9.6% last month] the jobless rate will have been above that level for 16 straight months. Already, the U.S. is mired in the longest such stretch of 9%-plus joblessness in more than a quarter of a century.”

04 Feb 2005

Posted at 16:47h in The Friday Brief by
The U.S. economy forges on, adding jobs and improving standards of living.  It was reported today that the unemployment rate fell from 5.4% in December to 5.2% in January, a three-year low.  According to Bloomberg News, the latest revisions show that the level of U.S.jobs now exceeds those of February 2001, a month before the world’s largest economy fell into an eight month recession. 

05 Nov 2004

Posted at 15:53h in The Friday Brief by
Fully aware of how deeply seated emotions are regarding the past Presidential election, and how much we are eager to get it behind us, I will be brief on that subject.  However, it is important to observe what the market told us regarding our choice of President.  Despite our deeply divided political convictions, the market made no secret of its druthers.  In the months following the Republican convention in August, the S&P rose over 7%.  The market’s strength was all the more remarkable given the steady bad news of record-setting oil prices, Iraqi war casualties, and rancorous campaign rhetoric. 

07 May 2004

Posted at 16:31h in The Friday Brief by
Maybe it’s impossible to fully prepare oneself for the prospect of leaving NeverLand.  We get comfortable with things as they are and are easily shaken when facing the possibility they may soon change.  We have known for months that interest rates couldn’t stay at forty-year lows and that tax breaks and incentives wouldn’t remain the rule.  But with all the waling and gnashing of teeth on Wall Street during the past few weeks, we see proof of Benjamin Graham’s observation that the market is a “voting machine” in the short run, driven by the sum of individuals voting their emotions of fear or greed.  Only during longer spans of time does it settle into its more dignified analytical reputation as a “weighing machine” of the facts.