Inflation talk is picking up as Fed governors and economists speak these days.  This week, the Labor Department trimmed its estimate for non-farm business productivity growth in the second quarter to a 1.8% annual rate from 2.2%.  That’s down from a 3.2% pace in the first quarter.  The Labor Department also said labor costs rose more sharply in the second quarter than it first estimated, and that labor costs rose in the year ending in June at the fastest pace in five years.  Labor costs are the biggest generator of consumer inflation. 

This week the markets have fared far better than last.  The S&P 500 is up almost 1% as of this morning and the NASDAQ is up over 2%.  Bonds have had a good week as well with the Lehman 1-3 Year and 7-10 Year Treasury Indexes rising .2% and .4% respectively. 

The U.S. economy forges on, adding jobs and improving standards of living.  It was reported today that the unemployment rate fell from 5.4% in December to 5.2% in January, a three-year low.  According to Bloomberg News, the latest revisions show that the level of U.S.jobs now exceeds those of February 2001, a month before the world’s largest economy fell into an eight month recession. 

The slow-down of the second quarter appears to be behind us.  Retail sales, excluding autos, rose for the fourth month in August.  Consumers remain cautious largely due to oil prices, but they continue to spend nevertheless.  Same-store retail sales were up 1% in September.  Consumer spending, which represents two thirds of the economy, rose at a 1.6% rate during the second quarter.  The consumer should remain healthy as the acceleration of job growth numbers will continue to improve income and confidence.