05 Dec 2003

Posted at 10:13h in The Friday Brief by
This week we saw improvement on the government policy front.  Yesterday, President Bush announced an end to the steel tariffs that have caused such noise from Europe andChina, as he announced that they had served their purpose.  Generally any government policy that restricts free trade is bad, but when concerted foreign competitive practices cause whole-industry disruption in a target country and the jobs it provides, action may be warranted.  But the questions are always complicated and heavily influenced by bias.

14 Jun 2002

Posted at 15:18h in The Friday Brief by
A handful of clients called or emailed this week to discuss the prospects for the market and what actions they should take given its current weakness.  I was as candid as possible with them and will be the same in my remarks today. 

26 Apr 2002

Posted at 15:53h in The Friday Brief by
Another word for risk is volatility – specifically negative volatility.  Webster defines volatility as the tendency to vary often or widely, as in price.  Obviously, we worry more when stocks vary downward as they do in bear markets.  April and October are the market's most volatile months.  It is during these months that companies report their first and third calendar quarters.  The first quarter is important as it sets the tone of the year’s earnings expectations.  By October, enough of the year is ‘on the books’ for the company to give a rough idea of what the year will actually look like.  It is a time when ‘confessions’ are made if the company was too optimistic earlier in the year.  It also used to be a time when management expressed excitement if they had an exceptionally good year.  SEC Regulation “Full and Fair Disclosure” has effectively minimized those wildly optimistic statements because of the liability brought if they are not met.