20 Sep 2010

Posted at 14:40h in The Friday Brief by
Is the economy falling into recession or is it merely stalling? The S&P 500 is off its April high by 12% while the rally in the 10-year US Treasury has driven yields to 2.55%, the lowest in 17 months. Yesterday the government’s leading economic indicators showed an increase of .1% in July provides hope that the economy is merely in a stall. But jobs, housing, and even manufacturing which has been a bright spot for the economy were more worrisome as they each declined this week. While the economic numbers were mostly negative this week, there is a bright spot. Intel’s acquisition of security software maker McAfee brings the August total of announced takeovers to more than $175 billion. Acquisitions are on a pace for August to surpass March as the biggest month for deals this year, according to Bloomberg. The month is typically the slowest.

06 Aug 2010

Posted at 14:58h in The Friday Brief by
The Great Recession, now in its 33rd month, drags on relentlessly and painfully as headlines such as today’s unemployment number perpetuate the gloom. The US economy lost more jobs in July than was expected and the unemployment rate remained fixed at 9.5%. But beneath the din, there are substantial reasons for hope of improvement.

18 Dec 2009

Posted at 15:41h in The Friday Brief by
Last week we discussed the possibility of a “W”-shaped recovery/recession. In such a scenario the economy rallies for a few quarters (two or three) then falls back into recession lacking sufficient momentum for recovery. Our economy started its growth trajectory surging 2.8% during the third quarter and is expected to continue growing for several months. The Conference Board released its index of leading economic indicators showing steady economic growth continuing into the new year. But the recovery is saddled with issues that will not quickly dissipate.

19 Jun 2009

Posted at 14:22h in The Friday Brief by
After trading in a narrow range from the beginning of June, stocks took a 3.7% dive on Monday and Tuesday as investors focused more on the disappointing economic news than on positive. However, the down days were on relatively light volume and there was little selling conviction evident.