In a busy week for economic reports, the standout was that the US economy contracted in the first quarter by a 2.9% annualized rate, the most since the depths of the last recession. According to Bloomberg, it marked the biggest downward revision from the agency’s second GDP estimate since records began in 1976. The revision reflected slowdowns in consumer and health care spending. Many economists are saying the drop was not reflective of the broader fundamentals, blaming much of the decline on weather. Maybe, but consumers don't appear to be buying it. Real consumer spending was down 0.2% in April and 0.1% in May, and the weather was good. Durable goods (designed to last long periods) orders were much weaker than expected for May as they fell 1.0% in May after rising 0.8% in April. Transportation was the largest contributor to the decline falling 3.0% after a 1.7% rise in April.

Rapidly rising stock markets are the most challenging times for financial advisors who truly care about their client's long-term well being. This latest market rally is no different  as it has prompted a number of calls from clients asking if they should be more aggressively invested to avoid missing out on the rally. Frankly, I’ve always suspected that my answer fell short of satisfying them. Now I know why.

When we shop for a bottle of wine on our own we invariably look to price and shelf location for guidance. Similarly when judging mutual funds for our 401K's on our own, our only guides are return and how they are presented by the fund providers. Return serves as a shortcut grading system of how the fund has fared over the market's recent past.