15 Feb 2008

Posted at 16:38h in The Friday Brief by
In the star-studded 1970’s comedy war film Kelly’s Heroes, Donald Southerland’s character ‘Oddball’ constantly admonished the dreary nature of his tank driver, Moriarty, played by Gavin MacLeod with the phrase “always with the negative waves Moriarty.”  The steady pounding of dour economic reports continues with little positive relief in sight. The juggernaut US and global economies seem to have changed course almost overnight. The change in mood is due both to qualitative and quantitative forces.

08 Feb 2008

Posted at 16:44h in The Friday Brief by
Last week we posed the question as to whether recession had already begun. Today 62 economists polled by Bloomberg News make it an even bet that job losses and housing contraction will stall the longest-ever expansion in consumer spending. They predict that the economy will grow at .5% in the first quarter implying the slowest growth since the 2001 recession. A growing number of economists, bankers, and brokers are saying that recession may already be upon us.

21 Dec 2007

Posted at 16:24h in The Friday Brief by
As economists grapple with where this economy is going the American consumer continues to surprise and amaze. The latest government figures, released today show that consumer spending rose considerably more than forecast in November. Purchases gained 1.1% in November, well ahead of .7% estimate. That is the highest rate of increase since the 1.2% increase in May 2004. It helps allay fears that the economy is falling so fast it cannot avoid recession.

29 Jun 2007

Posted at 13:18h in The Friday Brief by
With one day remaining, it’s safe to say that the second quarter was a good one for equity investors. The S&P 500 is up just a smidge under 6% and the NASDAQ increased by 7.7%. Much of the increases in both indices came in April as mega-corporate buyouts and mergers out did the former on a daily basis. Corporate earnings were surprisingly good as they climbed 11.6% on average during the second quarter, more than three times analysts' estimates in March. And the economy showed signs of improving growth without significant inflation pressures.