03 Apr 2009

Posted at 16:33h in The Friday Brief by
There are two categories of policy available to the government to influence an economy; monetary and fiscal. Fiscal policy employs government spending and taxation. Monetary policy, primarily overseen by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury is used to control and manipulate the supply and the cost (interest) of money in order to regulate the growth in the economy and the stability of prices. Of the nearly $12 trillion lent, promised and spent so far, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke’s program to drive down mortgage rates is delivering on its promise. Fixed 30-year mortgage rates are now down to 4.78% according to Freddie Mac. They are down for the second week in a row.

20 Mar 2009

Posted at 16:44h in The Friday Brief by
Today, there is a strongly held belief that financial markets are efficient. The efficient market hypothesis maintains that prices of traded assets such as stocks, bonds, or property adequately reflect the sum of all known information at any given point in time. With today’s rapid flow of information, we see prices adjusting ever more quickly and with greater volatility. The hypothesis also asserts that it is impossible to consistently outperform the market by using any information the market already knows, except through luck. There are strong and passionate opinions on both sides of this hypothesis and it is not our goal to defend or to debunk them today. Rather we aim to point out that because of the widely held belief in market efficiency there are some exciting opportunities that have strong potential if we lengthen our timeframe beyond nest week or next year. We want you to know about them.

20 Feb 2009

Posted at 14:13h in The Friday Brief by

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."George Santayana, in The Life of Reason 

“Common sense is very uncommon.” Horace Greeley

There seems to be a sense in Washington in this time of crisis that the rules of ordinary behavior of most any kind simply don’t apply. Whether observing economic behavior, spending behavior, fiscal behavior, monetary behavior, political behavior, or what used to be generally acceptable and responsible behavior, it’s all up for grabs these days. Didn’t we get into this mess by abandoning the ordinary rules of lending and of borrowing and regulating?

23 Jan 2009

Posted at 15:22h in The Friday Brief by
Good news on the economic front is rarer these days than moments of grace from our new Vice President. The lofty and idealistic words of President Obama, so well spoken seem a distant whisper among the barrage of history-making declines in housing, employment, prices, and confidence. Republicans and Democrats are already at loggerheads over the stimulus package. Corporate earnings are more dismal than expected and equities markets have given up almost two-thirds of their gains from lows reached in November.