Our government was designed with great care by the Founding Fathers to protect “We the people” from the tyranny of majorities or loud and powerful minorities. Our system of “checks and balances” is not perfect, but it has served an ethnically diverse nation well these 230 plus years. However, one glaring omission threatens to ruin it all. Fundamentally understood and respected by the Fathers, but nearly lost on today’s leaders is the idea of fiscal discipline, or spending no more than is received. Indeed today’s Senators and Congressmen are richly rewarded by “we the people” through longevity of office and growth of power, to take from one class and give it to another. Our leaders write larger ‘checks’ against ever-decreasing asset and ever-increasing liability ‘balances’ with no end in sight. Perhaps “we the people” are finally rising up to say enough is enough? 

The nineteenth century French writer Alphonse Karr is credited for our title. Perhaps a better way to express the sentiment comes from Ecclesiastes; “what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.” As Democrats bask in the afterglow of an Olympian-like celebration of their hero and his landmark speech, and Republicans get ready for their similar week of bashing and promising things sound the same to this writer. If this country was truly interested in alternative energy we would have found a way to harness the wasted, endlessly renewable, gas from political conventions long ago.

Back in mid July we suggested the Fed might pause at its August meeting. On August 8th they held their benchmark lending rate at 5.25%, while saying that consumer prices will “moderate over time” because of their 17 prior rate increases, surging energy prices and a cooling housing market. In the eyes of many the move was a bold one for new Fed chief Ben Bernanke. Inflation hawks (those who believe inflation is worse evil than slow economy) immediately criticized his decision as a gamble that could jeopardize the Fed’s credibility as an inflation fighter. Yet, as the data have come in, the decision seems all the wiser. Both the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index showed that inflation unexpectedly dropped last month. Housing starts slid 2.5% last month for the fifth time in six months. And yesterday, Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators dropped in July.

Evidence of short term price pressures continue to arise here and there.  The government reported this morning that imported goods rose in April at twice the expected rate, led by higher costs of automobiles, oils, and steel.  The increase follows a gain of 2% in March, the largest in 14 years.  Most of the rise was in the goods used to make other goods.  But, as we mentioned last week, commodity prices (used to make other goods) are showing signs of peaking.  Import prices for consumer and capital goods actually fell during the month of April.