16 Feb 2007

Posted at 14:54h in The Friday Brief by
Bond and stock investors alike are struggling to find some broad theme on which they can base their investment propositions. A problem is getting too close to the data, which, according to Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is ‘noisy.’ In his testimony before Congress Wednesday and Thursday Mr. Bernanke issued a balanced assessment of the economy with moderate growth and easing inflation. He said that he sees stabilization in the housing sector, and pointed to increasing strength in manufacturing and consumer spending.

16 Jul 2004

Posted at 16:17h in The Friday Brief by
We are in the midst of earnings season once again.  This time, however, analysts’ projections may be catching up to the actual pace of company earnings being reported.  In more cases than in previous quarters, analysts have been a little too optimistic about the actual pace of growth.  But we should not lose sight of the fact that the actual rate of earnings growth is still quite good.

12 Jul 2002

Posted at 16:21h in The Friday Brief by
The last few weeks have been among the darkest we have suffered through this prolonged bear market.  The environment grows more to this bear’s liking every day.  But, as long-term investors trying to survive this lengthy storm, we must stay focused on what is real and try to ignore the emotional winds that threaten our better judgment.  As far as we know to date, only a handful of self-centered individuals from Enron, ImClone, Anderson, WorldCom, and others created this morass.  Others such as analysts, economists, Senators and Representatives, and the media continue to press its ill effects on the market.  In fact, those who seek political gain from this mess may make this fall’s congressional race the most expensive in history as the market loses billions while investors’ lose confidence in their leadership.

15 Feb 2002

Posted at 16:07h in The Friday Brief by
The economy is coming out of, or may be out of recession.  Would somebody please notify the market?  Positive economic news is becoming almost commonplace, but its market impact has been mostly counter-intuitive.  In a bear market bad news is bad news and good news is sometimes bad news.  Many of the favorable economic releases of late have been greeted with fears of inflation and higher interest.  Yesterday, Jack Guynn, Atlanta Fed. President and non-voting member of Greenspan’s inflation police, knocked the wind out of the struggling market’s sails when he said that the Fed stood ready to raise rates at the first sign of inflation.  The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ dropped 1% and 1.5%, respectively on his comments.  If Mr. Guynn’s understanding his counterparts’ positions is true, then the Fed has learned NOTHING about the productivity miracle of the 90’s.  I think they have and that Mr. Guynn doesn’t speak for the majority.