Global and domestic conditions are playing into America’s long and strong suits – our economic system and our democratic ideals.  Productivity in the U.S. is rising faster than in any country in the world.  Innovation thrives here because of our broad diversity and because our free market system rewards innovation and risk-taking and because patents and copyrights protect profits for a sufficient time to reward the effort.  In a speech in 1859 Lincoln said:

July was the worst month for the S&P 500 since September 2001.  Few stocks were spared abuse.  Most of the best performers were stocks bouncing off oversold bottoms as telecommunications and technology stocks were among the leaders.  As mentioned in last weeks’ Brief, short covering accounted for most of the gains in stocks.  Lately, though, market specialists say they are seeing some real buying.  It may be due to money managers re-balancing their portfolios towards equities as bonds have become over-weighted during the past couple of years. 

The week has been an exciting one for stock investors as proof of a turn in the economy mounted.  Notably, in yesterday’s Congressional testimony, Mr. Greenspan said the economy is “already improving,” revising comments made before Congress just a week earlier.  Professionals on market trading floors say this rally represents real buyers, not just short-coverers.  Also encouraging is the fact that the rally is more orderly than previous ‘panic’ rallies where money managers feared being left behind and, consequently, over-inflated stock prices as they bought in at any cost.

As I write this letter, the market is falling rather dramatically.  It was triggered by the PPI release this morning which was down considerably below expectations, primarily on falling energy prices.  Since then, the newswires show that 50 U.S. and British aircraft have attacked three Iraqi military targets.  Given the recent terrorist and military hostilities in Israel, the market undoubtedly fears worse trouble in the Middle East.